Two years into a five-year, $64 million contract, Adrian Beltre has produced a .262 average, 44 home runs, and 176 RBIs. However, after the All Star break in 2006, Beltre slugged .552 with a whopping 18 home runs. Does this strong second half bode well for a turn-around in 2007, or will Mariners fans have to deal with 'A-Drain' once again? This blog intends to follow the 2007 season for Adrian Beltre, and the Seattle Mariners, and promises to hold no punches.
The Amazing Dark Hole that is the Mariners' Third Base
Published 4/28/2006 by true_slicky | E-mail this post
Baseball is a tricky game. You're hot one week, nothing but zeroes the next. You flub a catch at the top of the inning, you hit the game-winning home-run on the bottom. In fact, the only consistent thing about baseball is its inconsistency.
Oh, and the production from the Mariners' third baseman will be lousy. You can count on that too.
Pretty much every Mariner fan expected big things from Adrian Beltre after he signed his mammoth contract after his 2004 season. I mean, Beltre had just ranked in the Top 5 in the National League in Triple Crown categories and finished second in MVP voting and he was turning 26 years old- surely he couldn't tumble too far, could he? Well as his 2005 results, and his putrid 2006 start, shows, the Curse of the Mariners Third Base (TM) has struck again.
You see, throughout the dawn of time, or at least since 1977, the Mariners have trotted a series of third baseman who have far under-performed the league average. Using the statistics available at baseball-reference.com, I tracked the season-by-season results of Mariners' third basemen's OPS to the average OPS of the American League. (No I do not have a table or chart, if there's enough clamor for one I'll post one.) The seasons rank from the downright horrible- Jeff Cirillo's woeful .555 OPS in 2003 was 198 points below the league-average OPS of .753 (and may have cost the Mariners the division title that year)- to the spectacular- Edgar Martinez's 1992 season, in which his .948 OPS was 232 points higher than the league's .716.
(Some may raise issues with these comparisons- is it fair for me to compare the Mariners' third basemen to the rest of the league, which includes home-run leaders and those with astronomical OPS? Well, you also have to consider those far-reaching OPS will be balanced out the by the tiny Cirillo-like OPS offered by every team's utility infielders. Unless I can find a site that offers the league average production from each position, it's the only comparison I have.)
In the end, over 29 seasons, Mariners third basemen average a .721 OPS to an American League average OPS of .745. Not too shabby, right? Well, subtract the four years Edgar manned the hot corner, and all of a sudden that average OPS of Mariners' third basemen falls to .696, fifty points lower than the .747 league average OPS. Ouch! That's a dramatic loss of production from what's supposed to be one of the most productive positions on the field!
Considering that Beltre's OPS in 2005 was .716, it falls right in line with the traditional production expected from a Mariner third baseman- not too far off the mark from the overall mean of OPS provided by Mariners' third basemen (.721), yet much better than the .696 offered by Mariners third-basemen not named Edgar!
So there ya have it, folks! If you look at it the right way, Adrian's 2005 wasn't so much of a bomb after all! In fact, it should've been totally expected!
Of course, current Beltre's 2006 OPS of .462 would shatter all records for futility!
Oh, and the production from the Mariners' third baseman will be lousy. You can count on that too.
Pretty much every Mariner fan expected big things from Adrian Beltre after he signed his mammoth contract after his 2004 season. I mean, Beltre had just ranked in the Top 5 in the National League in Triple Crown categories and finished second in MVP voting and he was turning 26 years old- surely he couldn't tumble too far, could he? Well as his 2005 results, and his putrid 2006 start, shows, the Curse of the Mariners Third Base (TM) has struck again.
You see, throughout the dawn of time, or at least since 1977, the Mariners have trotted a series of third baseman who have far under-performed the league average. Using the statistics available at baseball-reference.com, I tracked the season-by-season results of Mariners' third basemen's OPS to the average OPS of the American League. (No I do not have a table or chart, if there's enough clamor for one I'll post one.) The seasons rank from the downright horrible- Jeff Cirillo's woeful .555 OPS in 2003 was 198 points below the league-average OPS of .753 (and may have cost the Mariners the division title that year)- to the spectacular- Edgar Martinez's 1992 season, in which his .948 OPS was 232 points higher than the league's .716.
(Some may raise issues with these comparisons- is it fair for me to compare the Mariners' third basemen to the rest of the league, which includes home-run leaders and those with astronomical OPS? Well, you also have to consider those far-reaching OPS will be balanced out the by the tiny Cirillo-like OPS offered by every team's utility infielders. Unless I can find a site that offers the league average production from each position, it's the only comparison I have.)
In the end, over 29 seasons, Mariners third basemen average a .721 OPS to an American League average OPS of .745. Not too shabby, right? Well, subtract the four years Edgar manned the hot corner, and all of a sudden that average OPS of Mariners' third basemen falls to .696, fifty points lower than the .747 league average OPS. Ouch! That's a dramatic loss of production from what's supposed to be one of the most productive positions on the field!
Considering that Beltre's OPS in 2005 was .716, it falls right in line with the traditional production expected from a Mariner third baseman- not too far off the mark from the overall mean of OPS provided by Mariners' third basemen (.721), yet much better than the .696 offered by Mariners third-basemen not named Edgar!
So there ya have it, folks! If you look at it the right way, Adrian's 2005 wasn't so much of a bomb after all! In fact, it should've been totally expected!
Of course, current Beltre's 2006 OPS of .462 would shatter all records for futility!
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