Baseball Prospectus's other new book hitting shelves this spring, Baseball Between the Numbers, examines a variety of hot-button debates, from steroids to the best player of all-time to how to build a playoff roster- and whetehr players perform better just before free agency. Even after adjusting for age and other factors, the answer is yes, they do. Beltre is used as a prime example, but he's actually forged an atypical career path. A typical walk-year spike might mark the culmination of several years of development, but Beltre's OPS the last five seasons was 722, 729, 714, 1017, and 717. Beltre will never hit .334 again, but he still has power in his arsenal. Look for production somewhere between the 2004 masterpiece and the dregs of '01-'03 and '05, something along the lines of .280/.340/.500 with continued great defense. Given Richie Sexson's age and lack of defensive value, when all's said and done Beltre could still be better of the M's two '04 off-season deals.