Two years into a five-year, $64 million contract, Adrian Beltre has produced a .262 average, 44 home runs, and 176 RBIs. However, after the All Star break in 2006, Beltre slugged .552 with a whopping 18 home runs. Does this strong second half bode well for a turn-around in 2007, or will Mariners fans have to deal with 'A-Drain' once again? This blog intends to follow the 2007 season for Adrian Beltre, and the Seattle Mariners, and promises to hold no punches.



A lot of ducks left on the pond...


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Maddening. Simply maddening.

Short list of things that are more enjoybale than watching the Mariners: sticking forks into your eyeballs. Giving yourself a root canal. Watching "Gigli" 24 hours straight.

The Mariners completed being swept at the hands of the Minnesota Twins today, and they way the played over the past three games, they got what they deserved. Three times over the past three games, the Mariners had the bases loaded and only had one run to show for it. First, Kenji Johjima was doubled off second Friday night, then the heart of the batting order struck out three straight times in the first inning of last night's game, then the Mariners grounded into a frickin' triple play in last night's game. (Of course, the triple play did knock in a run, so the M's can at least do that efficently.) The Mariners definitely had their chances over the past three games- they had 53 seperate opportunities to knock in runs. We're not talking about being two-hit by Rodrigo Lopez or anything of that nature.

Maddening. Simply maddening.

In trying to pinpoint how, exactly, the Mariners offense is so bad, I did some comparisons of this year's team and last. Mostly, I was looking through box-scores to see how the Mariners did in low-scoring pitcher's duels (games where there were no more than five runs combined). I thought that this year's offensive ineptitude was a carry over from last year's, but what I found surprised me:

2005 results in five-run combined games:
18-15 for a .546 winning percentage (!!!!).
Most team in these ‘duels’: Oakland, who won 4 of 6 (I think this is the essence of why I hate the A’s).
Pitcher with best record in these games: tie between Aaron Sele (wha??) and Gil Meche, both with 3-0 records.
Worst record: both Pineiro and Harris had 0-1 records, but Ryan Franklin, he of little run support, had eight decisions and lost 5.

2006 results in five-run combined games:
2-11 for a .154 winning percentage. Un-frickin-believable! (The M’s were 5-8 through their first 13 pitcher’s duels last season.)
All three games against the Red Sox in April at Fenway was the most unlikely stretch of pitcher’s duels.
The pitcher to win both games in these situations? Joel Pineiro, if you can believe it.
Both Felix, Moyer, and Washburn are 0-3

In fact, when it comes to Felix, he is now 3-5 in his brief career for the M’s in these situations. Considering he has 22 career starts that means that more than a third have been involved in “pitcher’s duels.”

Also, the frequency of these pitcher's duels are up- from 20% last year to 27% this year. Given the discrepency in won-loss records, however, it could be said that the main difference between last year and this was that last year the Mariners averaged one pitcher's duel a week and stood a good chance to win it. This year, they average about a couple a week and have no chance to win either.

So, what gives? The team is pretty much the same this year as last year except for the following: Lopez, Betancourt, Everett, Johjima, and Washburn on the pitching staff. Lopez & Betancourt are out-producing who the Mariners had at second and short last year, Everett is second on the team in home runs, and Johjima is not only out-producing last year's catchers, but is a main reason why the M's pitching staff are keeping them in so many duels, which Washburn has contributed to.

So is the decrease in production by Sexson and Beltre so much that it cancels out the improvement in production by Lopez, Betancourt, Johjima, and Everett?

By the way, Beltre had a good series. (Well "good" by his standards.) He went 3-for-13 with one double, no runs or RBIs, and left 6 men on. He entered the series hitting .207 and left hitting .219, but, hey, silver lining, right?

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