Two years into a five-year, $64 million contract, Adrian Beltre has produced a .262 average, 44 home runs, and 176 RBIs. However, after the All Star break in 2006, Beltre slugged .552 with a whopping 18 home runs. Does this strong second half bode well for a turn-around in 2007, or will Mariners fans have to deal with 'A-Drain' once again? This blog intends to follow the 2007 season for Adrian Beltre, and the Seattle Mariners, and promises to hold no punches.
When I finally got a chance to tune into last night's game versus the Dodgers, at around nine o'clock, things weren't going so hot. After just giving up one run in five innings, I tuned in just in time to hear Jarrod Washburn gave up a four spot in the sixth. With a 5-2 deficit and three innings left to play, it appeared that the Mariners' run of good luck would come to an end.
Well, a Carl Everett pinch-hit home-run and a Jose Lopez sacrifice fly followed right after Jarrod's troubles, and the Mariners got back to within a run. An inning later, Jeremy Reed hit a lead-off home-run as the Mariners batted around for four more runs to take the eventual 8-5 victory, thus preserving their perfect record in seven interleague games so far this year.
It's hard to believe that the Mariners are 7-0 against the National League. It's also hard to believe that the Mariners are just one win away from being .500. The Mariners have been on fire over the past month, winning 19 of 24 games. Still, it's hard to beleive they're as good a team as they appear to be. If they can complete the sweep tomorrow with Felix on the mound perhaps I won't be so ambivalent. Could it be that this team would no longer lose 1-0 games versus the Tampa Bay Devil Rays? Could it be that this team would no longer get shut-out by the likes of John Rheinecker, a 27-year old minor-league journeyman? Could it be that this Mariners team is actually a contender? Could it?
The best thing about the Mariners reaching .500 is that the season, in a way, starts all over again. It's almost wiping the slate blank. So the Mariners were ten games below .500 at one point? Once they reach .500, none of that matters.
In fact, it's a shame the Mariners couldn't have started their season on April 17. Coming into that game, Adrian beltre carried a .109 average, Ichiro was hitting .185, and Sexson was hitting .245. From April 17 on, Beltre has been hitting .278, Ichiro has been hitting a ridiculous .403, and Sexson has been, well, not hitting at all, as he's put up a .206 average. And the team's been 30-30. Ever since the Mariners were four-hit by Rangers call-up John Rheinecker on Memorial Day, with Beltre moving into the number two spot the following day, the Mariners have had a 14-6 record. There has been talk of moving Beltre back down in the order, but it's got to be asked: if it aint broke, why fix it?
Beltre continued to bludger Dodger pitching in last night's game, as he obviously finds comfort in Chavez Ravine. Against the Doger's vaunted young pitching stud Chad Billingsley and LA's ineffectual bullpen, AB went 3-for-4, including a double, along with two runs and 2 RBIs. He even stole a base (his tenth of the year) and his heads-up baserunning in the third manufactured a run. With two outs, Adrian was on third and Raul Ibanez was on first and attempted to steal second, daring Dodgers catcher Russell Martin to attempt to catch him at second. Martin took Ibanez's bait, and Beltre took of for home on Martin's throw. Ibanez stopped short and let himself get tagged out in a run-down, allowing Beltre to score before the third out was completed, tying the game 1-1.
Beltre is feasting on National League pitching this year. There have been some who have said Beltre's struggles with the Mariners are due to him switching leagues. Perhaps there is some truth to that. Indeed, in the last five games versus the Giants and the Dodgers, Beltre has gone 10-for-21 for a .476 average, and has had a ridiculous .905 slugging average, thanks to three doubles and two home-runs! Do my eyes deceive me, or is Beltre actually playing the role of a slugging third baseman?
Beltre has a career average of .270 (.271 if you discount his 2006 numbers). He finishes the second game of the Dodgers' series batting .250- meaning that not only has Beltre reached a season high in average, but that he has raised his batting average 19 points in five games! When you consider that, according to baseball-reference.com, Adrian Beltre averages 587 at-bats over a 162-game season, AB only needs to hit .289 (90 for 311) to match his career averages. Considering how he's been hitting the ball lately, that seems entirely plausible- as opposed to April, when it seemed highly unlikely that Beltre would even sniff his career norms.
The final game of the Dodgers series proves to be an exciting one. I've written before how the grand slam Eddie Guardado gave up in April to the Red Sox was perhaps the one defining moment of the Mariners' season so far, as it insitiagted a week-long stretch of futility that put them in a hole they still haven't dug out of yet. It's hard to pin-point a moment in which a team turns it around and instigates a period of playing good, competitive baseball. Certainly hindisght always helps, as it allows you to analyze and comapre the different results of different moments. The hour-long "talk" in Oakland after the Mariners first got swept down there kicked off a stretch of good baseball, which didn't carry over on their return trip to East Bay. However, if Felix can shut down the Dodgers and Beltre can continue to wield a hot bat over his former team one more time, then- voila! The Mariners would be at .500 and the 2006 season would have an entirely different smell to it (less putrid rotting carcass-like, more Irish Springish)!
Due to his brief career, Felix has yet to face the Dodgers. And despite his recent trend of dominance (7 earned runs in his past 22 innings with 19 strike-outs) and the Mariners' perfect record against the National League so far this year, Felix has struggled against NL teams this year, giving up 11 runs in 12 innings versus the Padres and the Giants. Felix will face sinkerballer Derek Lowe for the Dodgers, who has a career 3.52 ERA versus the Mariners with a 5-4 record. The former Mariner draftee has been pretty tough agaisnt the current crop of M's not named Ichiro, who has hit Lowe to the tune of .471 with 8 hits in 17 at-bats. Beltre has been kept hitless in five at-bats versus Lowe.
So what's going to happen in today's game? Conventional wisdom will be that Lowe will induce a number of sinkerballs against this Mariners line-up, and the M's offense will be unable to get anything going. Felix should get a number of strikeouts, but his numbers versus the NL this season are hardly inspiring. So, conventional wisdom should be that the Dodgers will come out on top in today's game, right? Well, conventional wisdom no longer applies to this series. Unless we see the return of Bad Felix (Hernandez did win both starts versus the NL this year, despite the number of runs given up) who grooves first-pitch fastballs down the heart of the plate, I believe it's safe to say the Mariners have yet another sweep locked up.
Oh, and who called Olmedo Saenz hitting a home-run against Washburn? I did. Kinda.
Well, a Carl Everett pinch-hit home-run and a Jose Lopez sacrifice fly followed right after Jarrod's troubles, and the Mariners got back to within a run. An inning later, Jeremy Reed hit a lead-off home-run as the Mariners batted around for four more runs to take the eventual 8-5 victory, thus preserving their perfect record in seven interleague games so far this year.
It's hard to believe that the Mariners are 7-0 against the National League. It's also hard to believe that the Mariners are just one win away from being .500. The Mariners have been on fire over the past month, winning 19 of 24 games. Still, it's hard to beleive they're as good a team as they appear to be. If they can complete the sweep tomorrow with Felix on the mound perhaps I won't be so ambivalent. Could it be that this team would no longer lose 1-0 games versus the Tampa Bay Devil Rays? Could it be that this team would no longer get shut-out by the likes of John Rheinecker, a 27-year old minor-league journeyman? Could it be that this Mariners team is actually a contender? Could it?
The best thing about the Mariners reaching .500 is that the season, in a way, starts all over again. It's almost wiping the slate blank. So the Mariners were ten games below .500 at one point? Once they reach .500, none of that matters.
In fact, it's a shame the Mariners couldn't have started their season on April 17. Coming into that game, Adrian beltre carried a .109 average, Ichiro was hitting .185, and Sexson was hitting .245. From April 17 on, Beltre has been hitting .278, Ichiro has been hitting a ridiculous .403, and Sexson has been, well, not hitting at all, as he's put up a .206 average. And the team's been 30-30. Ever since the Mariners were four-hit by Rangers call-up John Rheinecker on Memorial Day, with Beltre moving into the number two spot the following day, the Mariners have had a 14-6 record. There has been talk of moving Beltre back down in the order, but it's got to be asked: if it aint broke, why fix it?
Beltre continued to bludger Dodger pitching in last night's game, as he obviously finds comfort in Chavez Ravine. Against the Doger's vaunted young pitching stud Chad Billingsley and LA's ineffectual bullpen, AB went 3-for-4, including a double, along with two runs and 2 RBIs. He even stole a base (his tenth of the year) and his heads-up baserunning in the third manufactured a run. With two outs, Adrian was on third and Raul Ibanez was on first and attempted to steal second, daring Dodgers catcher Russell Martin to attempt to catch him at second. Martin took Ibanez's bait, and Beltre took of for home on Martin's throw. Ibanez stopped short and let himself get tagged out in a run-down, allowing Beltre to score before the third out was completed, tying the game 1-1.
Beltre is feasting on National League pitching this year. There have been some who have said Beltre's struggles with the Mariners are due to him switching leagues. Perhaps there is some truth to that. Indeed, in the last five games versus the Giants and the Dodgers, Beltre has gone 10-for-21 for a .476 average, and has had a ridiculous .905 slugging average, thanks to three doubles and two home-runs! Do my eyes deceive me, or is Beltre actually playing the role of a slugging third baseman?
Beltre has a career average of .270 (.271 if you discount his 2006 numbers). He finishes the second game of the Dodgers' series batting .250- meaning that not only has Beltre reached a season high in average, but that he has raised his batting average 19 points in five games! When you consider that, according to baseball-reference.com, Adrian Beltre averages 587 at-bats over a 162-game season, AB only needs to hit .289 (90 for 311) to match his career averages. Considering how he's been hitting the ball lately, that seems entirely plausible- as opposed to April, when it seemed highly unlikely that Beltre would even sniff his career norms.
The final game of the Dodgers series proves to be an exciting one. I've written before how the grand slam Eddie Guardado gave up in April to the Red Sox was perhaps the one defining moment of the Mariners' season so far, as it insitiagted a week-long stretch of futility that put them in a hole they still haven't dug out of yet. It's hard to pin-point a moment in which a team turns it around and instigates a period of playing good, competitive baseball. Certainly hindisght always helps, as it allows you to analyze and comapre the different results of different moments. The hour-long "talk" in Oakland after the Mariners first got swept down there kicked off a stretch of good baseball, which didn't carry over on their return trip to East Bay. However, if Felix can shut down the Dodgers and Beltre can continue to wield a hot bat over his former team one more time, then- voila! The Mariners would be at .500 and the 2006 season would have an entirely different smell to it (less putrid rotting carcass-like, more Irish Springish)!
Due to his brief career, Felix has yet to face the Dodgers. And despite his recent trend of dominance (7 earned runs in his past 22 innings with 19 strike-outs) and the Mariners' perfect record against the National League so far this year, Felix has struggled against NL teams this year, giving up 11 runs in 12 innings versus the Padres and the Giants. Felix will face sinkerballer Derek Lowe for the Dodgers, who has a career 3.52 ERA versus the Mariners with a 5-4 record. The former Mariner draftee has been pretty tough agaisnt the current crop of M's not named Ichiro, who has hit Lowe to the tune of .471 with 8 hits in 17 at-bats. Beltre has been kept hitless in five at-bats versus Lowe.
So what's going to happen in today's game? Conventional wisdom will be that Lowe will induce a number of sinkerballs against this Mariners line-up, and the M's offense will be unable to get anything going. Felix should get a number of strikeouts, but his numbers versus the NL this season are hardly inspiring. So, conventional wisdom should be that the Dodgers will come out on top in today's game, right? Well, conventional wisdom no longer applies to this series. Unless we see the return of Bad Felix (Hernandez did win both starts versus the NL this year, despite the number of runs given up) who grooves first-pitch fastballs down the heart of the plate, I believe it's safe to say the Mariners have yet another sweep locked up.
Oh, and who called Olmedo Saenz hitting a home-run against Washburn? I did. Kinda.
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