Two years into a five-year, $64 million contract, Adrian Beltre has produced a .262 average, 44 home runs, and 176 RBIs. However, after the All Star break in 2006, Beltre slugged .552 with a whopping 18 home runs. Does this strong second half bode well for a turn-around in 2007, or will Mariners fans have to deal with 'A-Drain' once again? This blog intends to follow the 2007 season for Adrian Beltre, and the Seattle Mariners, and promises to hold no punches.



Bring on the B-Jays!


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Hm. I suppose that could be misinterpreted. I am, of course, referring to the Toronto Blue Jays, who are the Mariners' first opponent after a four-day All-Star break.

Although this is the M's first series versus the Blue Jays this year, they have been played tough by the AL East, to no surprise. In 14 games, the M's have a .500 record and are averaging nearly a run less (4.2) than they have been over-all on the season (4.8). Those losses also include shut-outs being tossed at them by Rodrigo Lopez and All-Star Scott Kazmir.

The next two weeks pose a bit of a challenge for the M's. After the Blue Jays, they travel to New York to take on the Yankees. Then it's back home to face Boston, followed by the Blue Jays again. The Mariners need to continue to play this stretch against AL East teams as they've done all year. If they can manage a .500 record the next two weeks, they'll stay in contention in the divison. If they don't, they'll sink in the standings. On the flip side, however, the rest of the divison plays the same teams: Oakland has 6 v. Boston, 3 v. Baltimore, and 3 v. Detroit; Texas has 3 v. Bal, 3 v. Tor, a make-up game v. Boston, 3 v. the White Sox, and 3 v. the Yankees; and Los Angeles might have the "easy" schedule, with 6 v. Tampa bay, 3 v. Cleveland, and 3 v. Kansas City.

Friday night's game pits the M's newly-christened "ace" Gil Meche versus the B-Jay's rookie right-hander Casey Janssen. At one point during the season, Janssen was looking like he was attempting to make a case for himself in Rookie of the Year contention. From May 7 to June 7, Janssen won five out of seven starts and posted a 2.56 ERA and an 0.81 WHIP. Since the beginning of June, however, Janssen has hit a bit of a rocky patch, losing four of six starts while posting a 8.87 ERA and a 2.17 ERA. For the season, Janssen has a 6-7 won-loss record with a 4.73 ERA.

So, which Janssen will show up tomorrow night to pitch against the Mariners- Good Casey or Bad Casey? Here's hoping that it's Bad Casey, but considering this is Casey's first year and he has no prior experience versus the Mariners, that means even Bad Casey might be in a position to throw a two-hit shutout against the Mariners, their eleventh of the season. Janssen's got average-to-decent stuff, including a fastball in the low 90s, average breaking stuff, and strikes out more than twice the number of batters he walks. So, obviously, that means he's due to shut the Mariners down.

Unless, of course, Ace Meche has anything to say about it. Meche may not have solidified himself as the ace of a staff lacking one, as when he takes the mound I still don't have a feeling that the game, minus an Act of God, is an automatic win. What I do have, however, is the knowledge that, no matter the outcome, Meche will provide a solid outing, which is what I'm expecting for tomorrow night. After throwing a gutsy seven innings of two-run ball versus the Tigers, the best team in baseball, last Sunday to win the M's last game before the break, Meche takes the mound on the first game after the break against a team that he has a 2-2 career record and 4.50 ERA against.

For Meche to be successful tomorrow night, he needs to be spot on with his control. Looking over his career numbers, the most surprising fact is that B-Jay batters have walked 16 times in 32 innings, which is the same number of B-Jay batters Meche has struck out. There is no other team that exhibits such patience against Meche in his career, except possibly the walkeriffic A's (39 Ks to 32 walks in 60 innings). With this knowledge, and assuming the B-Jays will attemppt to keep their bats on their shoulders again, Meche needs to come out attacking the B-Jay batters for the M's to have a chance.

Another interesting point is that Meche has had relatively little trouble with the current B-Jay line-up. Alex Rios (.833) and Frank Catalanatto (.600) have given Meche fits, but in small sample sizes- 6 and 5 at-bats, respectively. However, versus the B-Jays' "big guns"- Troy Glaus and Vernon Wells- Meche has kept them at a .125 average, with only four hits in 32 at-bats. Two of those four hits, however, were home runs, so these two can definitely hit one out off Meche, if they are even able to catch up with his stuff in the first place.

Final prediction? I know I said this last Sunday, which ended up a pitching diel, but I think both teams will score a handful of runs. I do see the M's coming out on top, however, maybe with a score like 5-4.

Another player who might have something to say about the outcome of the game, and the series, is the M's new center fielder, uberprospect Adam Jones who, as I expected, has been called up from AAA Tacoma to make his major league debut and man centerfield, taking over for the disastrous Bloomquist-Choo platoon, whose fielding gaffes led to a number of runs in last weekend's series versus the Tigers. Jones may very well be the second high-end prospect in two summers making his presence felt with the big-league ball-club after Felix's electrifying run last year. Jones has been compared to Eric Davis over at USS Mariner and obviously it's a stretch to expect a second-half of Davis-like greatness from Jones, but we should expect to see flashes of greatness.

Hopefully that will coincide with some winning baseball, and the second half will prove to be just as exciting- if not more so- than the M's first half!

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