Two years into a five-year, $64 million contract, Adrian Beltre has produced a .262 average, 44 home runs, and 176 RBIs. However, after the All Star break in 2006, Beltre slugged .552 with a whopping 18 home runs. Does this strong second half bode well for a turn-around in 2007, or will Mariners fans have to deal with 'A-Drain' once again? This blog intends to follow the 2007 season for Adrian Beltre, and the Seattle Mariners, and promises to hold no punches.



2007 AL West forecast, revised (can the Mariners possibly win the division?)


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In a post a few weeks back, I predicted that the Mariners would come in second in their division this year, with the Los Angeles Angels coming out on top of a tight division. However, with the recent news that Angels starting third baseman/ league stolen bases leader Chone Figgins has fractured his finger and will be out about six weeks, I'm forced to pause and reconsider my assertions.

I picked the Angels to win the division due to their solid pitching staff, which is the best in the division. However, regardless of how great a team's pitching is, a modicum of offense is necessary to come out on top in ballgames. For an example, take a look at last year's A's, who won the division with pitching and defense, but if they didn't have the offense generated by Nick Swisher and a comeback season by Frank Thomas, they wouldn't have won the division. (Despite the Mariners' efforts to hand it to them.)

Figgins was one of the few offensive weapons in the Angels' arsenal, which now relies on Vladimir Guerrero and.... Gary Matthews Jr.???? (I heard that smirk!) It does appear that Garret Anderson has been having a strong spring, and may provide the type of bat he wielded a few years ago to protect Vlad in the line-up, but Angels fans better hope and pray that that's true. Otherwise, the Angels' offense is populated by way too many question marks: is Casey Kotchman ready to provide a full season at first base, now that his backup Darin Erstad is gone? How will Howie Kendrick's dynamic minor league bat translate into the major leagues? Who will replace Figgins at the beginning of the season at third, and will he come even close to matching Chone's presence in the line-up? And is Gary Matthews Jr. a drug-induced freak deserving of his contract, or the below league-average hitter he was prior to last season?

The fact remains that Figgins' injury doesn't affect the Angels' pitching at all, which is still better over-all than the Mariners'. However, the Mariners have the best offense in the division and if they come out of the gate with all cylinders firing, they might be able to take advantage of the slow start for the Angels that is all but guaranteed by the absence of Figgins. A good position in the standings for the Mariners upon Figgins' return means that they will be the team that the Angels will have to go through for the division title.

Which means the M's could just... possibly... win this thing.

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