Two years into a five-year, $64 million contract, Adrian Beltre has produced a .262 average, 44 home runs, and 176 RBIs. However, after the All Star break in 2006, Beltre slugged .552 with a whopping 18 home runs. Does this strong second half bode well for a turn-around in 2007, or will Mariners fans have to deal with 'A-Drain' once again? This blog intends to follow the 2007 season for Adrian Beltre, and the Seattle Mariners, and promises to hold no punches.



One-eighth of the season over...


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And things are looking pretty good. Granted, the M's are on target to finish 81-81, which would be ten games off my pre-season prediction, but considering the Mariners' baby steps towards respectability the past few years it only makes sense that they would finish exactly at the promised land of respectability. Still, it's really inappropriate to make forecasts after only 20 games, but it should be pointed out that the M's had just finished their first month of April at .500 or better since 2003, the last year that the Mariners contended into the final games of the season.

Some interesting questions and trends concerning the M's first 20 games. As Yo Beltre pointed out, after the stops-and-starts of the Mariners' schedule due to nature interference preventing the M's bats to find a groove, various hitters have all turned things around. Jose Lopez may have been hitting .250 with a sub-.600 OPS just a little over a week ago, now the second baseman is hitting .323 with an .817 OPS. Jose Vidro had a putrid start to the season, batting .143 after the first seven games. He then ripped off a 12-game hitting streak which ended in last night's ballgame, raising his average 175 points. Kenji Johjima has been consistent, with a batting average that hasn't dropped below .300 since a three-hit day back on April 13th.

And even if the M's corner boppers have been struggling, they have been producing in their own way. Adrian Beltre has 15 RBIs, on pace to finish with 120- a far cry from last year's April in which he finished with a .189 average and 6 RBIs. And prior to last night's RBI single, much had been made about Richie Sexson's inability to not pick up extra bases on his base hits. Sure, it would be nice to see Richie pack that .145 average with singles, but it's also pretty nice that he carries a .606 OPS despite such a lousy average. Nobody needs to worry- the base hits will come.

What needs to be worried about, however, is the state of the M's pitching. It would be nice if the offseason acquisitions the M's picked up to round out the rotation would deliver the results they're getting paid to. Instead, after eleven combined starts between Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, and Miguel Batista, only one quality start has been delivered- a pathetic ratio that is far subpar what is expected from a major league starting rotation. And if that percentage is continued throughout the season, the M's chances of sniffing respectability become threatened.

The ugliness may come to a head, however, with Weaver shrugging off a pretenses that he is, indeed, a major league starter with his performance on Saturday against the Kansas City Royals. Nobody must have informed Weaver that the game had, indeed, started as he continued to throw batting practice to the Royals batters for the next twenty minutes. All they did was tee off on his offerings, as Weaver ended up allowing six runs over one-third of an inning. With Jeff's staggering 18.26 ERA- the highest ERA ever by a Mariner pitcher with over ten innings- being so burdensome, it has the morale (and win streak) killing effect of ensuring that not only will the Mariners lose every fifth day, but that they'll be out of it before they even get a chance to bat.

To anyone who is a regular reader of this blog, you all know how much I despise Weaver. I had a case of the hives last winter, which I traced back to picking up the minute I read my first online rumor that Weaver was going to sign with the M's. As the rumors turned out to be true, I shuddered and grew deathly faint from illness, visions of Tony Pena Jr. soft line-drives knocking in two Royals filling my head. I may be hyperbolic, but with the capable job Cha Seung Baek has done filling in for Felix while he rests his elbow and stymies any inclination towards Tommy John surgery, I wonder if perhaps the M's could've saved $8 million for a more prudent investment, such as putting it into the coffers of the eventual amount they should offer Andruw Jones this coming offseason. Pitching was incredibly overpriced in this past off-season, and while its true that the two pitchers I had hoped the M's would pursue- Adam Eaton and Jason Schmidt- have both turned out to be duds, you have to wonder how Eaton's numbers would be pitching in the friendly confines of Safeco Field rather than the (not so) friendly confines of Citizens Bank Bandbox.

Besides, if the M's had resisted the urge to throw $8 million at such washed-up dreck as Jeff Weaver- who turned the lighting he caught in a bottle last October into a big payday at the Mariners' expense- they could've allowed Baek more time in the rotation, and given himself and opportunity to prove he belongs in a major league rotation. I could see Baek- if he was given the opportunity- being able to duplicate Horacio Ramirez's 2003 season (12-4, 4.00 ERA) that Ramirez himself. Now, after no-hitting the Royals through nearly six innings in last night's ballgame, hopefully Baek will get such a chance to prove himself. Hopefully, at Weaver's expense. Perhaps Weaver should spend some time pitching garbage-time mop-up duties. Down in AA San Antonio, of course. Just as long as he's far away from the Mariners' roster as possible.

Perhaps the best way to get an idea of just how damaging Weaver- the Eddie Guardado of 2007- has been for the M's this season, perhaps we should check out some visual aides. Sure, one can always look at box scores and stat lines, but over at the Lookout Landing blog, a Win Expectancy is created after the finish of each game, to show the moments the M's won or lsot each game, and who were the heroes and goats for each outcome. Check out the following Win Expectancies for games in which Weaver started:

Saturday, April 28th- the Weaver suckfest versus the Royals (The M's WE looks like an Enron stock ticker circa Janurary 2002)
Sunday April 22- three innings tossed versus the Angels
Tuesday, April 17- seven runs in six innings versus the Twins
Tuesday, April 10- the blowout by the Red Sox that started it all

In all four games, due to Weaver's putridness, the M's odds at winning had quickly flatlined. This results in lackluster play by the M's hitters as they'll quickly flick their bat at any opponent offering just to relieve themselves of being involved in such embarrassment, and complete disinterest from fans as televisions and radios are switched off in unison as Weaver's offerings have threatened to make them go blind or, as in my case, make them break out in hives.

But, despite all this. Despite Weaver's sub-A ball attempts at pitching. Despite the pretty tough schedule that awaited the M's first month of the season, playing against the Red Sox in Fenway, and four series versus division opponents. Despite the weather wreaking havoc on the M's past (and future) schedules. Despite all of this, the M's still finish the first month of 2007 with a .500 record, and hopefully that instills in them a well-deserved sense of confidence.

Sure, maybe the schedule doesn't let up that much, as the White Sox come to town for a quick two-game series. And then the Mariners travel to New York to play the Yankees, who I still think will turn things around and win their division when all is said and done. (But, hopefully, that won't happen until the M's-Yankees home-and-home series in May are finished. besides, we get Felix back to make his return start at Yankee Stadium. Joy!) Regardless of what awaits the Mariners on their schedule, all they can do is take each season one game, one month at a time. And as long as Jeff Weaver isn't on the mound, they just might surprise us!

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