Two years into a five-year, $64 million contract, Adrian Beltre has produced a .262 average, 44 home runs, and 176 RBIs. However, after the All Star break in 2006, Beltre slugged .552 with a whopping 18 home runs. Does this strong second half bode well for a turn-around in 2007, or will Mariners fans have to deal with 'A-Drain' once again? This blog intends to follow the 2007 season for Adrian Beltre, and the Seattle Mariners, and promises to hold no punches.
Well, it only took a couple of years, but the offense that was dancing in Mariners fans heads' since Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson in the 2004 off-season has finally materialized. This current road trip is one straight out of 2001, in which the Mariners won their first eleven series on the road. By going 6-1 over their past seven games, the Mariners have scored 60 runs, batted .335 and slugged .529. They amassed at least 29 total bases in one game versus each the Devil Rays, the Royals, and the Angels, in last night's 12-5 thrashing.
Beating up on the Devil Rays and the Royals- the dredges of the major leagues- should be expected from your team if they're to be considered 'good' by any standards. But beating up the leader in your team's division, especially when the opposing team had their ace on the mound? That's not just 'good,' it's a mark that this Mariners team are not the push-overs every sports pundit had them out to be in pre-season predictions. Tonight's game may very well be the first important turning point of the 2007 season for the Mariners: if they're able to take it and ensure a series win over the Angels, they are making it quite clear that it's them, and not the perennial contenders the Oakland Athletics, that the Angels are going to have to surpass for the title this season. And if the M's sweep? then the M's are serving notice that the summer in the American League West will be very interesting indeed.
The most promising aspect of the Mariners' current strong showing are that the bats of Beltre and Sexson have come around and shown that their rumored danger is undoubtedly real. With his four-extra base hit performance in last night's game, Beltre has turned himself into Bad-Ass Beltre, raising his average up to .275 despite being 0-for the first three games on this road trip, receiving a day off against Tampa Bay as a reward for his troubles. Whatever he thought about while riding the bench for that final game in Tampa Bay, the 13-12 blow-out in which Beltre's record of success against Tampa Bay start Jae Seo may have made a difference, he's been taking a vengeance on the baseball ever since, batting .647 with a 1.412 slugging percentage. Yowza!
And though he has yet to crack the .200 mark, Richie Sexson, who began the road trip batting .162, has only been held hitless in one game on this trip, and has raised his average up to .199 by going 11-for-31 for a .355 average, and slugging .613. Who knows what it took to get these two hitters 'on' but whatver it is, it's infectious as the Mariners now have a six-game streak with at least ten hits, as they have captured the current mantle of the top-hitting club in the American league. Too bad they also don't rank among the league leaders in walks or slugging percentage (yet) or otherwise this team would be an undeniable powerhouse!
I'm going to consider tonight's game a huge one for the Mariners, and will reflect on its outcome for the rest of the season. Obviously, the proceeding months will provide the context whether my gut feeling of the importance of tonight's game was correct or not. Then its only fitting, of course, that tonight's game will be started for the Marienrs by Ryan Feierabend, who will be replacing Horacio Ramirez's post on the mound- for at least one start. Feierabend made his major league debut at the end of last season, with decent numbers. However, he was subpar as a starter, allowing 20 baserunners in eleven innings with a nearly1:1 strikeout to walk ratio, but just picking up one loss despite a 5.73 ERA as a starter. Ryan's been less-than-dominant in Triple A as well, allowing 82 baserunners and a .320 average in 49 innings, but does have a minor-league strikeout to walk ratio at a much-improved 2:1 (still far off the 2.3:1 ratio Ryan had in San Antonio in 2006). The 2007 Baseball Prospectus has Ryan pegged as the second coming of John Halama, with a 5.33 ERA if he spent much time in the majors. So, Ryan has his work cut out for him on the mound this evening.
But perhaps the M's offense will continue its hot streak, and be able to compensate for the four miserable innings that Feierabend will most likely provide. If they can score nine runs off Bartolo Colon, one can only wonder at how many runs they'll be able to score off Ervin Santan, who holds a 5.34 career ERA against Seattle in 30 career innings. Santana is a much different pitcher at home, however, then he is on the road, as the nearly seven-run difference in the 9.33-to-2.30 raod-to-home ERA splits attest. Ervin's career numbers against Seattle include seven innings of one-run ball tossed against them at Angels Stadium last April 22, and its just the luck of the Mariners to draw Santana for the second time, at home. Still, Raul Ibanez is batting .545 with a 1.182 slugging percentage in 11 at-bats off Santana, while Richie Sexson has three home runs off Santana in 11 at-bats as well. So the potential for fireworks remains.
Expect Feierabend to get into trouble early, but the Mariners' strong bullpen will step in admirably and get things under control. Expect Ervin Santana to make a strong start, but to get into trouble later in the game. And with their hot hitting, I do not expect for the M's to fold as badly against Santana as they did a month ago. It'll be a close game, but I'm giving the nod to the M's, 7-6, with the game decided by the bullpens...
Beating up on the Devil Rays and the Royals- the dredges of the major leagues- should be expected from your team if they're to be considered 'good' by any standards. But beating up the leader in your team's division, especially when the opposing team had their ace on the mound? That's not just 'good,' it's a mark that this Mariners team are not the push-overs every sports pundit had them out to be in pre-season predictions. Tonight's game may very well be the first important turning point of the 2007 season for the Mariners: if they're able to take it and ensure a series win over the Angels, they are making it quite clear that it's them, and not the perennial contenders the Oakland Athletics, that the Angels are going to have to surpass for the title this season. And if the M's sweep? then the M's are serving notice that the summer in the American League West will be very interesting indeed.
The most promising aspect of the Mariners' current strong showing are that the bats of Beltre and Sexson have come around and shown that their rumored danger is undoubtedly real. With his four-extra base hit performance in last night's game, Beltre has turned himself into Bad-Ass Beltre, raising his average up to .275 despite being 0-for the first three games on this road trip, receiving a day off against Tampa Bay as a reward for his troubles. Whatever he thought about while riding the bench for that final game in Tampa Bay, the 13-12 blow-out in which Beltre's record of success against Tampa Bay start Jae Seo may have made a difference, he's been taking a vengeance on the baseball ever since, batting .647 with a 1.412 slugging percentage. Yowza!
And though he has yet to crack the .200 mark, Richie Sexson, who began the road trip batting .162, has only been held hitless in one game on this trip, and has raised his average up to .199 by going 11-for-31 for a .355 average, and slugging .613. Who knows what it took to get these two hitters 'on' but whatver it is, it's infectious as the Mariners now have a six-game streak with at least ten hits, as they have captured the current mantle of the top-hitting club in the American league. Too bad they also don't rank among the league leaders in walks or slugging percentage (yet) or otherwise this team would be an undeniable powerhouse!
I'm going to consider tonight's game a huge one for the Mariners, and will reflect on its outcome for the rest of the season. Obviously, the proceeding months will provide the context whether my gut feeling of the importance of tonight's game was correct or not. Then its only fitting, of course, that tonight's game will be started for the Marienrs by Ryan Feierabend, who will be replacing Horacio Ramirez's post on the mound- for at least one start. Feierabend made his major league debut at the end of last season, with decent numbers. However, he was subpar as a starter, allowing 20 baserunners in eleven innings with a nearly1:1 strikeout to walk ratio, but just picking up one loss despite a 5.73 ERA as a starter. Ryan's been less-than-dominant in Triple A as well, allowing 82 baserunners and a .320 average in 49 innings, but does have a minor-league strikeout to walk ratio at a much-improved 2:1 (still far off the 2.3:1 ratio Ryan had in San Antonio in 2006). The 2007 Baseball Prospectus has Ryan pegged as the second coming of John Halama, with a 5.33 ERA if he spent much time in the majors. So, Ryan has his work cut out for him on the mound this evening.
But perhaps the M's offense will continue its hot streak, and be able to compensate for the four miserable innings that Feierabend will most likely provide. If they can score nine runs off Bartolo Colon, one can only wonder at how many runs they'll be able to score off Ervin Santan, who holds a 5.34 career ERA against Seattle in 30 career innings. Santana is a much different pitcher at home, however, then he is on the road, as the nearly seven-run difference in the 9.33-to-2.30 raod-to-home ERA splits attest. Ervin's career numbers against Seattle include seven innings of one-run ball tossed against them at Angels Stadium last April 22, and its just the luck of the Mariners to draw Santana for the second time, at home. Still, Raul Ibanez is batting .545 with a 1.182 slugging percentage in 11 at-bats off Santana, while Richie Sexson has three home runs off Santana in 11 at-bats as well. So the potential for fireworks remains.
Expect Feierabend to get into trouble early, but the Mariners' strong bullpen will step in admirably and get things under control. Expect Ervin Santana to make a strong start, but to get into trouble later in the game. And with their hot hitting, I do not expect for the M's to fold as badly against Santana as they did a month ago. It'll be a close game, but I'm giving the nod to the M's, 7-6, with the game decided by the bullpens...
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