Two years into a five-year, $64 million contract, Adrian Beltre has produced a .262 average, 44 home runs, and 176 RBIs. However, after the All Star break in 2006, Beltre slugged .552 with a whopping 18 home runs. Does this strong second half bode well for a turn-around in 2007, or will Mariners fans have to deal with 'A-Drain' once again? This blog intends to follow the 2007 season for Adrian Beltre, and the Seattle Mariners, and promises to hold no punches.



The Mariners and the wrong side of luck


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From May 21-28, the M's ripped off six wins in eight games, winning by scores of 10-2 and 12-5, picking up double figures in hits in all but one game to take the top in the league in batting. Luck had nothing to do for the team during this stretch (except for the bad luck that limited them to two runs in a loss to the Indians despite picking up twelve hits). Instead, it was an example of dominating baseball, with all facets of the team- offense, pitching, bullpen, defense- helping whittle their deficit in the division.

A week later the M's won an 11-6 victory over the Texas Rangers amidst a stretch in which the M's won nine out of ten. This stretch, however, was not that of a dominating team, but one that reaped the benefits of luck. I point out this game even though it didn't kick off a winning streak because it was the last game decided by an M's starter in seventeen days, until Jeff Weaver saw it fit to shut out the Pirates and put an end to that ignoble feat. This stretch of wins, which shaved a couple games from the M's deficit, was marked by a series of one-run games (four in a row won by that matter in fact) which is the purest representation of luck benefiting a team: a bounce here, a two-out knock there, favorable calls by the umps, miscues by the opposing side. I'm not saying the M's bullpen didn't step up and do what was needed from them when handed a lead- they did- what I'm saying it was luck that got the lead to the bullpen in the first place. and I expressed some concern on this blog at the time that luck has a chance of flipping in baseball at a second's notice, and that's exactly what happened as this stretch of enjoyable baseball was followed by a season-high six-game losing streak (the first two were one-run games) which dropped the M's to 7.5 games out.

So now here we are. I get shouted down whenever I say the M's have been a lucky team, outplaying what their record should be. Their offense and their starting pitching is pedestrian. Their big bat, I admit it, conjures up the worst of Dave Kingman. Felix is obviously a head case, and perhaps the M's should sign a Pedro or a Glavine (or bring back Moyer?) just to get a veteran in the clubhouse to cool Felix's jets. Its obvious to anyone with a pair of eyes that the M's bullpen has been the savior of the season, but during the series against the Rangers I watched crestfallen as Chris Reitsma gave up the game-winning extra base hit to a no-name infielder from the Texas Rangers who had killed the M's all day (anyone else thinking IBB?) I have to wonder if that armor hadn't gotten a big chink in it- right at the most inopportune time of the season to boot, just when the M's were sniffing the Angels' testes. This latest losing streak has, admittedly, seen the M's on the wrong end of some strong starting pitching (seriously- Josh Towers? You can't score against Josh Towers? Really.) But of the six games lost so far, five of them have been one-run losses (including the last four in a row). So you know what that means? It means that the Mariners have been on the wrong side of luck- with runners getting doubled off first, their perfect closer giving up a game-winning home-run in a bandbox of a stadium, all the bounces are currently going against this team. But it will flip around- just like it always does. Fear not my Mariner faithful, do not get despondent. This isn't the Tampa Bay Devil Rays we're talking here. Luck will favor the M's again, and I say sooner rather than later. (I almost thought it was going to happen during the Rangers series with Raul's strikeout that wasn't. Sadly it was not to be....)

As if on cue after such a nightmarish unlucky road trip, the Oakland A's stroll into Seattle for a four-game series. The A's may be the perfect elixir for what's currently ailing the M's. Known for their strong second-halves, instead the A's have won four of thirteen games since the All-Star Break. And just before the break, the M's took three of for from the A's down in Oakland. The opposite of last year, the M's have had the A's number all season long, winning seven of nine, and it brings me much joy to say those words.

The pitching match-up in tonight's first game could potentially be a marquee match-up. It pits Danny Haren, one of the league's best starters, against Jeff Weaver 2.0, who has had a series of quality starts since returning from an arm injury. Haren may have an 11-3 record and 2.41 ERA, but he has lost twice against the M's this season, with the last one giving up four runs in 6.1 innings. Beltre will be licking his chops to face Haren in tonight's game, as Adrian carries a career .448 average against Haren in 29 at-bats, with seven extra-base hits for a 1.328 OPS. The rest of the Mariners' line-up, however, has struggled against Haren, as evidenced by the low career averages of Ichiro (.241), Sexson (.111), and Lopez (.188) against the A's ace.

In his last start against Oakland, Jeff Weaver allowed one run in five innings in a no-decision. Although he's given up three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, Weaver just has a 2-2 record to show for it. Oakland has roughed up Weaver pretty good during his career, with Jeff allowing 76 hits in 66 innings for a 5.32 ERA, despite a 3-3 record. Eric Chavez has hammered Weaver, with a .440 career average in 25 at-bats, but surprisingly no home runs. Shannon Stewart (11 hits in 40 at-bats) also has some success against Weaver, while Mike Piazza (two hits in twelve) has struggled.

This is a tough game to call. I'd like to pick the M's to finally get some lucky breaks and hand Haren his third loss against them this season- but Haren is far too good a pitcher to imagine he'd have 75% of his losses against the same team. It'd be easy to pick Haren to out duel Weaver in a match-up, but considering Weaver's recent track record, it's not hard to imagine an outing of seven innings, two-run ball from Jeff. it'd be easy to say that the bullpens will decide this game, which means the M's have an advantage, but their recent offensive woes don't give me much confidence that they'd help the bullpen out. In the final analysis, if Beltre is able to hit Haren well, the M's will win. But I doubt he will, so I'll give the nod to the A's in this game (and hopefully this game only) as the M's find themsleves on the losing end of another one-run loss, by a score of 3-2.

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